After a barrage of over 300 Iran missiles and drones attacks on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, Israel finds itself at a crossroads in determining its next move.
The Israeli Defense Forces reported that 99 percent of the incoming projectiles were intercepted by Israeli jets, aided by allies including the United States and Jordan. The Iron Dome missile defense system, a critical component in Israel’s defense architecture, also successfully stopped several missiles, thanks to U.S. assistance.
However, while Western diplomats and U.S. President Joe Biden have reportedly advised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against further retaliation, some analysts believe that the recent strikes might be an attempt to embroil the U.S., Israel’s close ally, in a broader regional conflict.
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The Prelude: Israel’s Attack on the Iranian Consulate
Analysts are scrutinizing Israel’s April 1 attack on the Iranian consulate, which resulted in the deaths of two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) generals and five officers. This strike, conducted with minimal consultation with allies, has become a focal point in understanding Israel’s motivations.
Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at SWP Berlin, outlined two potential scenarios behind Israel’s consulate attack. The first suggests a lack of foresight about the repercussions, while the second proposes a calculated move to draw Iran into a regional conflict and divert U.S. and Western attention from Israel’s ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Netanyahu’s Strategy Under Scrutiny
Nomi Bar-Yaacov, an associate fellow at Chatham House, suggests that Netanyahu’s primary goal might be to divert attention from domestic challenges. Facing dwindling popularity and growing discontent over his handling of the Gaza conflict and judiciary reforms, Netanyahu could be leveraging Western sympathy following Iran’s retaliatory strikes.
HA Hellyer, an expert on Middle East security, points out that Netanyahu’s gambit could be in jeopardy given the U.S.’s reluctance for military escalation. The U.S. has signaled a preference for a unified diplomatic response to Iran, potentially undermining Netanyahu’s strategy.
The Diplomatic Path Forward
Despite the escalating tensions, diplomatic avenues remain open. Israel has echoed its earlier response by calling for a UN Security Council meeting to address the recent attacks. However, if Israel refrains from taking decisive action against Iran, it risks further internal divisions and eroding support within its own cabinet and society.
Hellyer suggests that if Netanyahu anticipates a lack of U.S. support for a direct assault on Iran, targeting Iran’s proxies could be an alternative strategy. Nevertheless, as tensions reach a tipping point, diplomatic solutions appear to be the most viable path forward to prevent further destabilization in the region.
Country Response : Iran Missiles and Drones Attacks on Israel
Japanese Leader Fumio Kishida Condemns Iran’s Assault on Israel
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida voiced strong criticism on Sunday against Iran’s missile and drone strike on Israel.
“This attack exacerbates the already tense situation in the Middle East. We express deep concern and firmly denounce this escalation,” Kishida stated to the press.
Kishida affirmed Japan’s commitment to diplomatic initiatives aimed at “mitigating the situation and restoring calm,” pledging to “collaborate with other nations in our response.”
Blinken Consults with UK and German Foreign Ministers After Iran’s Strike on Israel
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken engaged in discussions with the Foreign Ministers of the United Kingdom and Germany on Sunday in the aftermath of Iran’s attack on Israel, as indicated by statements from the State Department.
The parties concurred on “the critical need to vehemently condemn Iran’s aggression and to avert any further escalation,” according to the statement.
Prior to these conversations, Blinken also conferred with his counterparts from Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. During these talks, he stressed the necessity of de-escalation in the Middle East and advocated for “a unified diplomatic approach.”